When world leaders meet in Copenhagen, they will have a pretty good idea of what the planet looks like today, thanks to the huge amount of environmental data generated daily by satellites, buoys, ships, balloons, planes and ground sensors. Climate models based on this will also have conveyed how the world might look tomorrow.
We all hope this meeting will result in responsible decisions and global policies. However, for these policies to be applied effectively, we must achieve a better understanding of the complex underlying mechanisms behind climate change, leading to reliable predictions on long-term consequences for various human development scenarios.
A powerful array of tools is needed for in-situ and remote sensing of multiple interacting systems and cycles whose balance – or imbalance – will shape the world we leave our children. Thales Alenia Space is working on satellites with a key role because of their ability to deliver global, timely and coherent picture information. Future solid foundations For over 30 years, we have been a major supplier of European satellites. The Meteosat system, designed and built by us, has provided continuous monitoring of the Earth’s atmosphere from geostationary orbit over the Atlantic Ocean. It also supports Pacific and Indian Ocean surveys when other international systems are unavailable.
Watch Reynald Seznec's speech shown on the internal television network during the summit
The Meteosat programme began on an experimental basis for the European Space Agency (ESA), before an operational system under Eumetsat took over. A second generation of more advanced satellites is now in operation and a third generation being planned.
Thales Alenia Space, working with French space agency CNES and NASA (JPL), developed the Poseidon altimeters and Jason satellites, giving invaluable insights into thermohaline circulation (THC), the “engine” for ocean heat exchanges. Once “operational”, the Jason series of satellites will transfer to the primary responsibility of Eumetsat and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These two programmes illustrate how we believe a scientific need must first be identified, to precisely define the models in order to provide pertinent user-oriented products. Once these products have proven their validity and relevance, it is vital to ensure data continuity and improvement. One of the primary objectives of the ESA/European Union GMES initiative is to coordinate and consolidate European efforts to ensure continuous data.
Data makes a difference
Very complex and accurate models have already been developed, but uncertainty grows exponentially when applied to long-term climate changes. Even using the same assumptions, forecasts generated by different models tend to diverge. To predict the behaviour of a mechanism as complex as a planet’s atmosphere and oceans, we need more data over a longer period of time so older values can be plugged into the models to check predictions against actual observations and thus validate our algorithms. Spaceborne systems are an invaluable source. Satellites generate long-term consistent measurements, even in remote, uninhabited regions where human activities still have a measurable impact. Space systems perfectly complement insitu measurements by filling out the measurement grid on a global scale with a crucial contribution to the definition and implementation of effective environmental policies at the local, national, regional and global levels.
Thales Alenia Space is a leading player in nearly all of the environmental monitoring and Earth observation programmes in Europe. Our Meris imager on Envisat monitors oceans, coastal areas, clouds and vegetation, while the IASI sounder on Metop delivers atmospheric profiles. The Calipso satellite investigates aerosols and SMOS will map changes in sea surface salinity and soil moisture. The Siral instrument on Cryosat will measure the thickness of ice sheets and monitor fresh water flows caused by polar cap meltdown. GOCE and its unique three-axis gravitometer will provide the most accurate baseline geoid ever, serving as a reference for other measurements. Thales Alenia Space has long-standing and fruitful partnerships with research institutes worldwide. This will continue through our involvement in the Sentinel satellite system for GMES.
The smoking gun
Just as there is a large gap between simply knowing facts and understanding them, there may also be quite a leap from understanding to taking effective action. Greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, lack comprehensive monitoring and data collection, affecting our ability to assess the effectiveness of policies to reduce these emissions. Do carbon sinks have a significant effect on CO2 concentrations? What is the ratio between human-induced and natural emissions, and what share of these can be naturally reabsorbed? Is the offset policy, in which the “cleanest” countries sell their “polluting rights”, producing any atmospheric benefits? In answer, we need to understand and to monitor the carbon cycle over the long term. In-situ measurements of carbon fluxes between the atmosphere, soil and vegetation can be combined with satellite-based monitoring of carbon monoxide and dioxide in the atmosphere to yield a powerful solution – if based on sufficiently sensitive systems. Given the current network of observation sites, scientists are unable to resolve fluxes more precisely than at continental and seasonal scales. This is not enough to check the results of current policies, all the more so since natural carbon sinks show a high degree of variability which could mask the impact of changes in emissions for decades.
We have already determined that the technology developed by Thales Alenia Space and incorporated in the IASI instrument on the Metop satellite could be adapted for such purposes. Beyond its environmental aspect, this issue entails major political and economic stakes: the value of the European carbon market was estimated at about 60 billion euros in 2008, while its United States counterpart was roughly three times larger. This is a clear indication we have to expand our environmental monitoring, remote sensing data processing and ecological policymaking efforts. This would mean major investments in the future, especially in Europe, but we can expect a significant return in many areas of the global economy, including agriculture, manufacturing and services. Thales Alenia Space has the expertise needed by the scientific community to develop the instruments and satellites required for key environmental assessments to decision-makers – for the benefit of our children and the following generations.
Reynald Seznec,
CEO Thales Alenia Space
www.thalesaleniaspace.com
